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OKUN YASASI BAĞLAMINDA EKONOMİK BÜYÜME VE İŞSİZLİK ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN EKONOMETRİK ANALİZİ: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDEN KANITLAR (2000:Q1-2017:Q4)

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 1, 8 - 27, 15.04.2018

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisinde ekonomik büyüme
hızlarıyla işsizlik hadleri arasındaki ilişkiler, Okun Yasasının fark, aralık
ve dinamik modelleri üzerinden 2000:Q1-2017:Q4 dönemi için zaman serisi
analiziyle incelenmektedir.
Bu kapsamda çalışmada, ekonomik büyüme hızlarıyla
işsizlik hadleri arasında Okun Yasası kapsamında geçerli olan teorik ve ampirik
ilişkilerin, Türkiye ekonomisi özelinden değerlendirilmesi amaçlanmaktadır.
Çalışmanın fark modeli sonuçları, Türkiye
ekonomisinde inceleme dönemindeki belirli bir çeyreklik dönemde sıfır reel
ekonomik büyüme hızı karşısında işsizlik hadlerinde % 0.38’lik bir artışın
ortaya çıkabileceğini ve % 5.72’nin üzerinde gerçekleşen % 1’lik reel ekonomik
büyüme hızları karşısında işsizlik hadlerinde yaklaşık % 0.067’lik bir
azalmanın meydana gelebileceğini göstermektedir. Çalışmanın aralık modeli
sonuçları ise Türkiye ekonomisinde inceleme döneminde
% 5.72’nin altında
gerçekleşen % 1’lik reel ekonomik büyüme hızlarının, işsizlik hadlerinde %
0.071 ile 0.105 oranında bir artış meydana getirdiğini ve tam istihdam işsizlik
haddinin % 9.82 olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.
Son olarak çalışmanın dinamik model sonuçları ise Türkiye
ekonomisinde örneklem döneminde reel ekonomik büyüme hızlarında meydana gelen
%1’lik bir artışın işsizlik hadlerinde % 0.078’lik bir azalış meydana
getirdiğini göstermektedir. Tüm bu sonuçlar, Türkiye ekonomisinde reel ekonomik
büyüme hızlarıyla işsizlik hadleri arasındaki karşı yönlü devrevi ilişkilerin
inceleme dönemi itibariyle Okun Yasasının fark, aralık ve dinamik modelleri
kapsamında farklı derecelerde olmakla birlikte geçerli olduğunu ortaya
koymaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Adanu, Kwami, (2005), A Cross-Province Comparison of Okun's Coefficient for Canad, Applied Economics, Vol.37, No.5, pp.561-570.
  • Ahmad, Khalil, Sumaira, Allah Ditta Saeed, (2011), Does There Exist Okun’s Law in Pakistan? International Journal of Humanities and Social Science. Vol.1, No.12, pp.293-299.
  • Kanalıcı Akay, Hülya, Nejla Adanur Aklan, & Mehmet ÇINAR, (2016), Türkiye Ekonomisinde Ekonomik Büyüme ve İşsizlik, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, Vol.14, No.1, pp.209-226.
  • Ball, Laurence M., Daniel Leigh & Prakash Loungani, (2013) “Okun's Law: fit at fifty?” NBER Working Paper No.18668, pp.1-38.
  • Bande, Roberto, Angel L. Martın-Roman, (2017), Regional differences in the Okun’s Relationship: New Evidence for Spain (1980-2015), MPRA Paper No. 79833, posted 22 June 2017 12:54 UTC. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/79833/ (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2018).
  • Barışık, Salih, Emrah İsmail ÇEVİK & Nüket KIRCI ÇEVİK, (2010), Türkiye’de Okun Yasası, Asimetri İlişkisi ve İstihdam Yaratmayan Büyüme: Markov-Switching Yaklaşım, Maliye Dergisi, No. 159, pp.88-102.
  • Beaton, Kimberly, (2010), Time Variation in Okun’s Law: A Canada and U.S. Comparison, Bank of Canada Working Paper 2010-7.
  • Ceylan, Servet, Burcu Yılmaz Şahin, (2010), İşsizlik ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinde Asimetri, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, Vol.11, No.2, pp.157-165.
  • Christl, Michael, Monika Köppl-Turyna, & Denes Kucsera, (2017), Okun’s Law in Austrıa. DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, Vol.8, No.2, pp.97–110.
  • Christopoulos, Dimitris K., (2004), The relationship between output and unemployment: Evidence from Greek regions, Papers in Regional Science, Vol.83, No.3, pp.611–620.
  • Coen, Robert M., Bert G. Hickman, (2006), An Econometric Model of Potential Output, Productivity Growth, and Resource Utilization, Vol.28, No.4, pp.645-664.
  • Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo, (2003), Okun's Law Revisite. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. Vol.65, No.4, pp.439-451.
  • Demirgil, Hakan, (2010), Okun Yasası’nın Türkiye İçin Geçerliliğine Dair Ampirik Bir Çalışma, Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi. Vol.2, No.2, pp.139-151.
  • Doğru, Bülent, (2013), The link between unemployment rate and real output in Eurozone: A panel error correction approach, 9th International Strategic Management Conference, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences No. 99, pp.94-103.
  • Durech, Richard, Alexandru Minea, Lavinia Mustea, & Lubica Slusna, (2014), Regional evidence on Okun’s Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia, Economic Modelling, No.42, pp.57-65.
  • Elshamy, Hany, (2013), The Relationship Between Unemployment and Output in Egypt, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol.81, pp.22-26.
  • Ertuğrul, Hasan Murat, Ayhan Uçak, (2013), Ekonomik Büyüme İstihdam İlişkisi: Türkiye İçin Dinamik Bir Uygulama, International Journal of Human Sciences, Vol.10, No.1, pp 661-675.
  • Evans, George W., (1989), Output and Unemployment Dynamics in the United States: 1950-1985, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.4, No.3, pp.213-237.
  • Gordon, Robert J., (1984), Unemployment and Potential Output in the 1980s, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2-1984, pp.537-568.
  • Göçer, İsmet, (2015), Okun Yasası: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama, Uluslararası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, Vol.1, No.1, pp.1-12.
  • Guisinger, Amy Y., Ruben Hernandez-Murillo, Michael T. Owyang, & Si Tara M. Sinclair, (2015), A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law, Institute for International Economic Policy Working Paper Series, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University.
  • Gujarati, Damodar N., Dawn C. Porter, (2012), Temel Ekonometri, Beşinci Basımdan Çeviri, 1. Baskı, Çev. Şenesen Ümit ve Gülay Günlük Şenesen, Litaratür Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Gürsel, Seyfettin, Gökçe Uysal & Mine Durmaz, (2015), Düşük Büyüme Olağanüstü İstihdam Artışı, BETAM, Bahçeşehir Üniversitesi Ekonomik Ve Toplumsal Araştırmalar Merkezi, araştırma notu: 15/184.
  • Holmes, Mark J., Brian Silverstone, (2006), Okun’s Law, Asymmetries and Jobless Recoveries in the United States: A Markov-Switching Approach, Unıversıty of
  • Waıkato. Hamilton New Zealand. Department of Economics, Working Paper in Economics, pp.1-11.
  • Knotek, Edward S, (2007), How useful is Okun’s law? Economic Review, Fourth Quarter, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pp.73-103.
  • Lancaster, David, Peter Tulip, (2015), Okun’s Law and Potential Output. Economic Research Department, Reserve Bank of Australia, Research Discussion Paper 2015-14, pp.1-29.
  • LEE, Junsoo, Mark C. Strazicich, (2003), Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.85, No.4, pp.1082–1089.
  • Lee, Jim, (2000), The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol.22, No.2, pp.331-356.
  • Mıhcı, Sevinç, Emre Atılgan, (2010), İşsizlik ve büyüme: Türkiye ekonomisi için Okun katsayıları, İktisat İşletme ve Finans. Vol.25, No.296, pp.33-54.
  • Moazzami, B., B. Dadgostar, (2009), Okun’s Law Revisited: Evidence From OECD Countries. International Business & Economics Research Journal, Vol.8, No.8, pp.21-24.
  • Moosa, Imad A, (1999), Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment and Okun's Coefficient: Structural Time Series Approach, International Review of Economics & Finance, Vol.8,No. 3, pp.293-304.
  • Moosa, Imad A., (1997), A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun's Coefficient, Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol.24, No.3, pp.335-356.
  • Mucuk, Mehmet, Ayşen Edirneligil, & Mustafa Gerçeker, (2017), The Relationship Between Unemployment Rate and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey, Research Journal of Politics, Economics And Management. Vol.5, No.1, pp.1-8.
  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar, Stephan Popp, (2010), A New Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks in Level and Slope at Unknown Time, Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol.37, No.9, pp.1425-1438.
  • Okun, Arthur M., (1962), Potential GNP & Its Measurement and Significance, American Statistical Association, Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section.
  • Owyang, Michael T., Tatevik Sekhposyan, (2012), Okun’s Law over the Business Cycle: Was the Great Recession All That Different? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2012, Vol.94, No.5, pp.399-418.
  • Perron, Pierre, (1989), The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis, Econometrica, Vol.57, No.6, pp.1361-1401.
  • Petkov, Boris, (2008), The Labour Market and Output in the UK – Does Okun's Law Still Stand? Bulgarian National Bank, series, September 2008, Discussion Papers, pp.1-41.
  • Prachowny, Martin .F.J., (1993), Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.75, No.2, pp.331-336.
  • Sadiku, Murat, Alit Ibraimi, & Luljeta Sadiku, (2015), Econometric Estimation of the Relationship between Unemployment Rate and Economic Growth of FYR of Macedonia, Procedia Economics and Finance-2015, Vol. 9, pp.69-81.
  • Silvapulle, Paramsothy, Imad A. Moosa & Mervyn J. Silvapulle, (2004), Asymmetry in Okun's law, Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol.37, No.2, pp.353-374.
  • Sögner, Leopold, (2001), Okun's Law Does the Austrian unemployment–GDP relationship exhibit structural breaks? Empirical Economics, Vol.26, No.3, pp.553-564.
  • Sögner, Leopold, Alfred Stiassny, (2002), An analysis on the structural stability of Okun's law--a cross-country study, Applied Economics, Vol.34, No.14, pp.1775-1787.
  • Tarı, Recep, (2010), Ekonometri, 6. Baskı, Umuttepe Yayınları, Kocaeli.
  • Tatoğlu, Ferda Yerdelen, (2011), The Long and Short Run Effects between Unemployment and Economic Growth in Europe, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, Vol.12, No.1, pp.99-113.
  • Ünsal, Erdal M., (2017), Makro İktisat. Genişetilmiş 11. Baskı. Murat Yayınları: Ankara.
  • Villaverde, Jose, Adolfo Maza, (2009), The robustness of Okun's law in Spain, 1980–2004: Regional Evidence, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol.31, No.2, pp.289-297.
  • Viren, Matti, (2001), The Okun curve is non-linear, Economics Letters, Vol.70, No.2, pp.253-257.
  • Weber, Christian E, (1995), Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun's Coefficient: A New Approach, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.10, No.4, pp.433-445.
Yıl 2018, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 1, 8 - 27, 15.04.2018

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Adanu, Kwami, (2005), A Cross-Province Comparison of Okun's Coefficient for Canad, Applied Economics, Vol.37, No.5, pp.561-570.
  • Ahmad, Khalil, Sumaira, Allah Ditta Saeed, (2011), Does There Exist Okun’s Law in Pakistan? International Journal of Humanities and Social Science. Vol.1, No.12, pp.293-299.
  • Kanalıcı Akay, Hülya, Nejla Adanur Aklan, & Mehmet ÇINAR, (2016), Türkiye Ekonomisinde Ekonomik Büyüme ve İşsizlik, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, Vol.14, No.1, pp.209-226.
  • Ball, Laurence M., Daniel Leigh & Prakash Loungani, (2013) “Okun's Law: fit at fifty?” NBER Working Paper No.18668, pp.1-38.
  • Bande, Roberto, Angel L. Martın-Roman, (2017), Regional differences in the Okun’s Relationship: New Evidence for Spain (1980-2015), MPRA Paper No. 79833, posted 22 June 2017 12:54 UTC. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/79833/ (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2018).
  • Barışık, Salih, Emrah İsmail ÇEVİK & Nüket KIRCI ÇEVİK, (2010), Türkiye’de Okun Yasası, Asimetri İlişkisi ve İstihdam Yaratmayan Büyüme: Markov-Switching Yaklaşım, Maliye Dergisi, No. 159, pp.88-102.
  • Beaton, Kimberly, (2010), Time Variation in Okun’s Law: A Canada and U.S. Comparison, Bank of Canada Working Paper 2010-7.
  • Ceylan, Servet, Burcu Yılmaz Şahin, (2010), İşsizlik ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinde Asimetri, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, Vol.11, No.2, pp.157-165.
  • Christl, Michael, Monika Köppl-Turyna, & Denes Kucsera, (2017), Okun’s Law in Austrıa. DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, Vol.8, No.2, pp.97–110.
  • Christopoulos, Dimitris K., (2004), The relationship between output and unemployment: Evidence from Greek regions, Papers in Regional Science, Vol.83, No.3, pp.611–620.
  • Coen, Robert M., Bert G. Hickman, (2006), An Econometric Model of Potential Output, Productivity Growth, and Resource Utilization, Vol.28, No.4, pp.645-664.
  • Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo, (2003), Okun's Law Revisite. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. Vol.65, No.4, pp.439-451.
  • Demirgil, Hakan, (2010), Okun Yasası’nın Türkiye İçin Geçerliliğine Dair Ampirik Bir Çalışma, Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi. Vol.2, No.2, pp.139-151.
  • Doğru, Bülent, (2013), The link between unemployment rate and real output in Eurozone: A panel error correction approach, 9th International Strategic Management Conference, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences No. 99, pp.94-103.
  • Durech, Richard, Alexandru Minea, Lavinia Mustea, & Lubica Slusna, (2014), Regional evidence on Okun’s Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia, Economic Modelling, No.42, pp.57-65.
  • Elshamy, Hany, (2013), The Relationship Between Unemployment and Output in Egypt, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol.81, pp.22-26.
  • Ertuğrul, Hasan Murat, Ayhan Uçak, (2013), Ekonomik Büyüme İstihdam İlişkisi: Türkiye İçin Dinamik Bir Uygulama, International Journal of Human Sciences, Vol.10, No.1, pp 661-675.
  • Evans, George W., (1989), Output and Unemployment Dynamics in the United States: 1950-1985, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.4, No.3, pp.213-237.
  • Gordon, Robert J., (1984), Unemployment and Potential Output in the 1980s, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2-1984, pp.537-568.
  • Göçer, İsmet, (2015), Okun Yasası: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama, Uluslararası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, Vol.1, No.1, pp.1-12.
  • Guisinger, Amy Y., Ruben Hernandez-Murillo, Michael T. Owyang, & Si Tara M. Sinclair, (2015), A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law, Institute for International Economic Policy Working Paper Series, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University.
  • Gujarati, Damodar N., Dawn C. Porter, (2012), Temel Ekonometri, Beşinci Basımdan Çeviri, 1. Baskı, Çev. Şenesen Ümit ve Gülay Günlük Şenesen, Litaratür Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Gürsel, Seyfettin, Gökçe Uysal & Mine Durmaz, (2015), Düşük Büyüme Olağanüstü İstihdam Artışı, BETAM, Bahçeşehir Üniversitesi Ekonomik Ve Toplumsal Araştırmalar Merkezi, araştırma notu: 15/184.
  • Holmes, Mark J., Brian Silverstone, (2006), Okun’s Law, Asymmetries and Jobless Recoveries in the United States: A Markov-Switching Approach, Unıversıty of
  • Waıkato. Hamilton New Zealand. Department of Economics, Working Paper in Economics, pp.1-11.
  • Knotek, Edward S, (2007), How useful is Okun’s law? Economic Review, Fourth Quarter, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pp.73-103.
  • Lancaster, David, Peter Tulip, (2015), Okun’s Law and Potential Output. Economic Research Department, Reserve Bank of Australia, Research Discussion Paper 2015-14, pp.1-29.
  • LEE, Junsoo, Mark C. Strazicich, (2003), Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.85, No.4, pp.1082–1089.
  • Lee, Jim, (2000), The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol.22, No.2, pp.331-356.
  • Mıhcı, Sevinç, Emre Atılgan, (2010), İşsizlik ve büyüme: Türkiye ekonomisi için Okun katsayıları, İktisat İşletme ve Finans. Vol.25, No.296, pp.33-54.
  • Moazzami, B., B. Dadgostar, (2009), Okun’s Law Revisited: Evidence From OECD Countries. International Business & Economics Research Journal, Vol.8, No.8, pp.21-24.
  • Moosa, Imad A, (1999), Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment and Okun's Coefficient: Structural Time Series Approach, International Review of Economics & Finance, Vol.8,No. 3, pp.293-304.
  • Moosa, Imad A., (1997), A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun's Coefficient, Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol.24, No.3, pp.335-356.
  • Mucuk, Mehmet, Ayşen Edirneligil, & Mustafa Gerçeker, (2017), The Relationship Between Unemployment Rate and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey, Research Journal of Politics, Economics And Management. Vol.5, No.1, pp.1-8.
  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar, Stephan Popp, (2010), A New Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks in Level and Slope at Unknown Time, Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol.37, No.9, pp.1425-1438.
  • Okun, Arthur M., (1962), Potential GNP & Its Measurement and Significance, American Statistical Association, Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section.
  • Owyang, Michael T., Tatevik Sekhposyan, (2012), Okun’s Law over the Business Cycle: Was the Great Recession All That Different? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2012, Vol.94, No.5, pp.399-418.
  • Perron, Pierre, (1989), The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis, Econometrica, Vol.57, No.6, pp.1361-1401.
  • Petkov, Boris, (2008), The Labour Market and Output in the UK – Does Okun's Law Still Stand? Bulgarian National Bank, series, September 2008, Discussion Papers, pp.1-41.
  • Prachowny, Martin .F.J., (1993), Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.75, No.2, pp.331-336.
  • Sadiku, Murat, Alit Ibraimi, & Luljeta Sadiku, (2015), Econometric Estimation of the Relationship between Unemployment Rate and Economic Growth of FYR of Macedonia, Procedia Economics and Finance-2015, Vol. 9, pp.69-81.
  • Silvapulle, Paramsothy, Imad A. Moosa & Mervyn J. Silvapulle, (2004), Asymmetry in Okun's law, Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol.37, No.2, pp.353-374.
  • Sögner, Leopold, (2001), Okun's Law Does the Austrian unemployment–GDP relationship exhibit structural breaks? Empirical Economics, Vol.26, No.3, pp.553-564.
  • Sögner, Leopold, Alfred Stiassny, (2002), An analysis on the structural stability of Okun's law--a cross-country study, Applied Economics, Vol.34, No.14, pp.1775-1787.
  • Tarı, Recep, (2010), Ekonometri, 6. Baskı, Umuttepe Yayınları, Kocaeli.
  • Tatoğlu, Ferda Yerdelen, (2011), The Long and Short Run Effects between Unemployment and Economic Growth in Europe, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, Vol.12, No.1, pp.99-113.
  • Ünsal, Erdal M., (2017), Makro İktisat. Genişetilmiş 11. Baskı. Murat Yayınları: Ankara.
  • Villaverde, Jose, Adolfo Maza, (2009), The robustness of Okun's law in Spain, 1980–2004: Regional Evidence, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol.31, No.2, pp.289-297.
  • Viren, Matti, (2001), The Okun curve is non-linear, Economics Letters, Vol.70, No.2, pp.253-257.
  • Weber, Christian E, (1995), Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun's Coefficient: A New Approach, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.10, No.4, pp.433-445.
Toplam 50 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular İşletme
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ömer Yalçınkaya

Muhammet Daştan

Kerem Karabulut

Yayımlanma Tarihi 15 Nisan 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Cilt: 1 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Yalçınkaya, Ö., Daştan, M., & Karabulut, K. (2018). OKUN YASASI BAĞLAMINDA EKONOMİK BÜYÜME VE İŞSİZLİK ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN EKONOMETRİK ANALİZİ: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDEN KANITLAR (2000:Q1-2017:Q4). Uluslararası Ekonomi Siyaset İnsan Ve Toplum Bilimleri Dergisi, 1(1), 8-27.

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