Araştırma Makalesi
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On the Robustness of Scientific Models

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 55, 49 - 65, 31.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.26650/arcp.1033984

Öz

Robustness analysis is an epistemic strategy by which different and independent procedures are utilized to reach the same conclusion. Because this strategy is related with the robustness and sensitivity of the models, it has an epistemic importance for both scientists and philosophers of sciences. This paper, first, in a historical context, evaluates the robustness analysis. Then, the functions and the classifications of the robustness analyses are evaluated. Finally, a distinction is made with respect to robustness analysis. According to this distinction, the object of robustness tests is whether a given model that helps in explanation is true. Robustness analysis is about determination of the truth of the explanans, that is, determination of the truth conditions of the conditional part of the model. This is reasoning about models. However, applicability is not about whether the model is true but whether the antecedent of the model is satisfied in the case at hand. This is reasoning with models..

Kaynakça

  • Parker, Wendy S. “When Climate Models Agree: The significance of Robust Model Predictions.” Philosophy of Science, 78(4) (2011): 579-600.
  • Pirtle, Zachary -Ryan Meyer Ryan -Hamilton Andrew. “What Does it Mean When Climate Models Agree? A Case for Assessing Independence Among General Circulation Models.” Environmental Science and Policy, 13, (2010): 351–361.
  • Edward Emory Leamer."Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics." American Economic Review, 73, 1, (1983): 31-43.
  • Karaca, Koray. “Two Senses of Experimental Robustness: Result Robustness and Procedure Robustness.” The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, (2020), 1-29.
  • Lisciandra, Chiara. “Robustness Analysis and Tractability in Modeling.” European Journal for Philosophy of Science, Vol.7, Issue 1, (2017): 79–95.
  • McMullin, Ernan. “Galilean Idealization.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science, 16, (1985): 247–273.
  • Carwright, Nancy. “Replicability, Reproducibility and Robustness: Comments on Harry Collins.” History of Political Economy 23, (1991): 143–155.
  • Achinstein, Peter. The Book of Evidence. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.
  • Woodward, James. “Some Varieties of Robustness.” Journal of Economic Methodology, 13:2, (2006): 219-240.
  • van Fraassen, Bas C. “The Perils of Perrin, in the Hands of Philosophers.” Philosophical Studies, 143, (2009): 5–25.
  • Chalmers, Alan F. “Drawing Philosophical Lessons from Perrin’s Experiments on Brownian Motion: A Response to van Fraassen.” The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 62, ( 2011): 711–732. Schickore, Jutta - Coko, Kolodian. “Using Multiple Means of Determination.” International Studies in the Philosophy of Science, 27:3, (2013): 295-313.
  • Coko, Kolodian. “Towards a Mutually Beneficial Integration of History and Philosophy of Science: The Case of Jean Perrin”. The Past,Present, and Future of Integrated History and Philosophy of Science. Eds. Emily Herring, Kevin Matthew Jones, Konstantin S. Kiprijanov, Laura M Sellers, 186-209. London: Routledge, 2019.
  • Coko, Klodian. “Jean Perrin and the Philosophers’ Stories: The Role of Multiple Determination in Determining Avogadro’s Number.” Hopos: The Journal of the International Society for the History of Philosophy of Science, 10 (1), (2020): 143-193.
  • Coko, Klodian. “The Multiple Dimensions of Multiple Determination.” Perspectives on Science, 28 (4), (2020): 505–541.
  • Hacking, Ian. Representing and Intervening: Introductory Topics in the Philosophy of Natural Science. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1983. Salmon, Wesley C. Scientific Explanation and the Causal Structure of the World. Princeton University Press, 1984.
  • Peirce, Charles Sanders. “Some Consequences of Four Incapacities.” Journal of Speculative Philosophy, 2, (1868): 140-157.
  • Ayer, Alfred. The Problem of Knowledge. Macmillan. 1956.
  • Laudan, Larry. “William Whewell on the Consillience of Inductions.” The Monist, 55(3), (1971), 368-391.
  • Levins, Richard. “The Strategy of Model Building in Population Biology.” American Scientist, 54(4), (1966): 421-431.
  • Wimsatt, William C. “Robustness, Reliability, and Overdetermination.”Scientific Inquiry and the Social Sciences. Eds. B. Brewer, B. E. Collins, 124–163, San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass, 1981.
  • Putnam, Hilary. Mathematics, Matter and Method, Collected Papers, Vol. 2. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1975.
  • Stegenga, Jacob. “Robustness, Discordance, and Relevance.” Philosophy of Science, 76 (5), (2009): 650-661.
  • Odenbaugh, Jay - Alexandrova, Anna. “Buyer beware: robustness analysis in economics and biology.” Biology and Philosophy, 26 (5) (2011): 757-771.
  • Guala, Francesco - Salanti, Andrea. “On the Robustness of Economic Models.” Universita’ Degli Studi Di Bergamo, (2002):1-23.
  • Weisberg, Michael - Reisman, Kenneth. “The Robust Volterra Principle.” Philosophy of Science, 75(1), (2008): 106-131.
  • Raerinne, Jani. “Robustness and Sensitivity of Biological Models.” Philosophical Studies, 166 (2), (2013):285-303.
  • Aydınonat, Emrah N. “The Diversity of Models as a Means to Better Explanations in Economics.” Journal of Economic Methodology, 25:3, (2018): 237-251.
  • Veit, Walter: “Model Pluralism.” Philosophy of the Social Sciences. Vol. 50(2) 91–114. Vol. 75, No. 1, (2020): 664-677.
  • Orzack, Steven Hecht - Sober, Elliot. “A Critical Assessment of Levins's the Strategy of Model Building in Population Biology.” The Quarterly Review of Biology, 68(4), (1993): 533-546.
  • Levins, Richard. “A Response to Orzack and Sober: Formal Analysis and the Fluidity of Science.” Quarterly Review of Biology 68 (4), (1993):547-555.
  • Kuorikoski, Jaakko - Lehtinen, Aki - Caterina Marchionni, Caterina. “Economic Modelling as Robustness Analysis”, The British Journal for The Philosophy of Science, 61(3), (2010): 541-567.
  • Cartwright, Nancy. “Replicability, Reproducibility and Robustness: Comments on Harry Collins”, History of Political Economy 23, (1991), 143–155.
  • Mäki, Uskali. “On a Paradox of Truth, or How not to Obscure the issue of Whether Explanatory Models Can be True.” Journal of Economic Methodology, 20:3, (2013): 268-279.
  • Daniel M. Hausman, Daniel M. “Paradox Postponed.” Journal of Economic Methodology, 20:3, (2013):250-254.
  • Sugden, Robert. “Credible Worlds: The Status of Theoretical Models in Economics.”Journal of Economic Methodology 7 (1), (2000):1–31.
  • Woodward, James. “Some Varieties of Robustness.” Journal of Economic Methodology, 13:2, (2006): 219-240.
  • Forber, Patrick. “Confirmation and Explaining How possible.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, 41, (2010): 32–40.
  • Houkes, Wybo - Vaesen, Krist. “Robust! Handle with Care.” Philosophy of Science, 57(5), (2012):345-364.
  • Justus, James. “The Elusive Basis of Inferential Robustness.” Philosophy of Science, Vol. 79, No. 5, (2012):795-807.
  • Kuorikoski, Jaakko - Lehtinen, Aki. “Incredible Worlds, Credible Results”, Erkenntnis 70, (2009:119–131.
  • Jaakko Kuorikoski - Aki Lehtinen - Caterina Marchionni, “Economic Modelling as Robustness Analysis”, The British Journal for The Philosophy of Science, 61(3), (2010), 541-567.
  • Weisberg, Micheal . “Robustness Analysis.” Philosophy of Science 73, (2006): 730–742.
  • Lloyd, Elisabeth A. “Varieties of Support and Confirmation of Climate Models.” Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 83 (1), (2009): 213-232.
  • Lloyd, Elisabeth A. “Confirmation and Robustness of Climate Models.” Philosophy of Science 77 (5), (2010): 971–984.
  • Lloyd, Elisabeth A. “Model Robustness as a Confirmatory Virtue: The Case of Climate Science.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 49, (2015): 58-68. Lehtinen, Aki. “Derivational Robustness and Indirect Confirmation.” Erkenntnis 83 (3), (2018): 539-576.
  • Elgin, Mehmet - Sober, Elliot. “Cartwright on Explanation and Idealization.” Erkenntnis 57, (2002): 441–450.
  • Weisberg, Michael. “Three Kinds of Idealization.”Journal of Philosophy, 104 (12), (2007): 639-659.

Bilimsel Modellerin Sağlamlığı Üzerine

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 55, 49 - 65, 31.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.26650/arcp.1033984

Öz

Sağlamlık analizi (robustness analysis), çok sayıda birbirinden bağımsız prosedür aracılığıyla aynı sonucun elde edilmeye çalışıldığı epistemik bir stratejidir. Söz konusu strateji bilim pratiğinde açıklama verme ve öndeyi türetiminde başvurulan modellerde sıklıkla kullanılır. Bilimsel modellerin ne derece sağlam ve hassas olduğunun belirlenmesi ile ilgili bir yöntem olduğu için sağlamlık analizi hem bilim insanları hem de bilim felsefecileri açısından epistemik bir öneme sahiptir. Bu makalede öncelikle, sağlamlık analizleri tarihsel çerçevede ele alınmaktadır. Ardından literatürde yer alan farklı sağlamlık analizi sınıflandırmaları ve sağlamlık analizlerinin işlevleri tartışılıp, modeller sağlamlık analizleri ve model temelli açıklamalar arasındaki ilişki ile ilgili bir ayrım yapılmaktadır. Bu ayrım modeller hakkında akıl yürütme ile modeller ile akıl yürütme arasındaki farklılıklar ile ilgilidir. Bu ayrıma göre bilimsel açıklamalarda kullanılan modellerin doğruluğunun koşullarının belirlenmesi sağlamlık analizleri olarak değerlendirilirken, modellerin uygulanabilirliği modeller ile akıl yürütme ile ilgilidir..

Kaynakça

  • Parker, Wendy S. “When Climate Models Agree: The significance of Robust Model Predictions.” Philosophy of Science, 78(4) (2011): 579-600.
  • Pirtle, Zachary -Ryan Meyer Ryan -Hamilton Andrew. “What Does it Mean When Climate Models Agree? A Case for Assessing Independence Among General Circulation Models.” Environmental Science and Policy, 13, (2010): 351–361.
  • Edward Emory Leamer."Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics." American Economic Review, 73, 1, (1983): 31-43.
  • Karaca, Koray. “Two Senses of Experimental Robustness: Result Robustness and Procedure Robustness.” The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, (2020), 1-29.
  • Lisciandra, Chiara. “Robustness Analysis and Tractability in Modeling.” European Journal for Philosophy of Science, Vol.7, Issue 1, (2017): 79–95.
  • McMullin, Ernan. “Galilean Idealization.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science, 16, (1985): 247–273.
  • Carwright, Nancy. “Replicability, Reproducibility and Robustness: Comments on Harry Collins.” History of Political Economy 23, (1991): 143–155.
  • Achinstein, Peter. The Book of Evidence. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.
  • Woodward, James. “Some Varieties of Robustness.” Journal of Economic Methodology, 13:2, (2006): 219-240.
  • van Fraassen, Bas C. “The Perils of Perrin, in the Hands of Philosophers.” Philosophical Studies, 143, (2009): 5–25.
  • Chalmers, Alan F. “Drawing Philosophical Lessons from Perrin’s Experiments on Brownian Motion: A Response to van Fraassen.” The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 62, ( 2011): 711–732. Schickore, Jutta - Coko, Kolodian. “Using Multiple Means of Determination.” International Studies in the Philosophy of Science, 27:3, (2013): 295-313.
  • Coko, Kolodian. “Towards a Mutually Beneficial Integration of History and Philosophy of Science: The Case of Jean Perrin”. The Past,Present, and Future of Integrated History and Philosophy of Science. Eds. Emily Herring, Kevin Matthew Jones, Konstantin S. Kiprijanov, Laura M Sellers, 186-209. London: Routledge, 2019.
  • Coko, Klodian. “Jean Perrin and the Philosophers’ Stories: The Role of Multiple Determination in Determining Avogadro’s Number.” Hopos: The Journal of the International Society for the History of Philosophy of Science, 10 (1), (2020): 143-193.
  • Coko, Klodian. “The Multiple Dimensions of Multiple Determination.” Perspectives on Science, 28 (4), (2020): 505–541.
  • Hacking, Ian. Representing and Intervening: Introductory Topics in the Philosophy of Natural Science. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1983. Salmon, Wesley C. Scientific Explanation and the Causal Structure of the World. Princeton University Press, 1984.
  • Peirce, Charles Sanders. “Some Consequences of Four Incapacities.” Journal of Speculative Philosophy, 2, (1868): 140-157.
  • Ayer, Alfred. The Problem of Knowledge. Macmillan. 1956.
  • Laudan, Larry. “William Whewell on the Consillience of Inductions.” The Monist, 55(3), (1971), 368-391.
  • Levins, Richard. “The Strategy of Model Building in Population Biology.” American Scientist, 54(4), (1966): 421-431.
  • Wimsatt, William C. “Robustness, Reliability, and Overdetermination.”Scientific Inquiry and the Social Sciences. Eds. B. Brewer, B. E. Collins, 124–163, San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass, 1981.
  • Putnam, Hilary. Mathematics, Matter and Method, Collected Papers, Vol. 2. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1975.
  • Stegenga, Jacob. “Robustness, Discordance, and Relevance.” Philosophy of Science, 76 (5), (2009): 650-661.
  • Odenbaugh, Jay - Alexandrova, Anna. “Buyer beware: robustness analysis in economics and biology.” Biology and Philosophy, 26 (5) (2011): 757-771.
  • Guala, Francesco - Salanti, Andrea. “On the Robustness of Economic Models.” Universita’ Degli Studi Di Bergamo, (2002):1-23.
  • Weisberg, Michael - Reisman, Kenneth. “The Robust Volterra Principle.” Philosophy of Science, 75(1), (2008): 106-131.
  • Raerinne, Jani. “Robustness and Sensitivity of Biological Models.” Philosophical Studies, 166 (2), (2013):285-303.
  • Aydınonat, Emrah N. “The Diversity of Models as a Means to Better Explanations in Economics.” Journal of Economic Methodology, 25:3, (2018): 237-251.
  • Veit, Walter: “Model Pluralism.” Philosophy of the Social Sciences. Vol. 50(2) 91–114. Vol. 75, No. 1, (2020): 664-677.
  • Orzack, Steven Hecht - Sober, Elliot. “A Critical Assessment of Levins's the Strategy of Model Building in Population Biology.” The Quarterly Review of Biology, 68(4), (1993): 533-546.
  • Levins, Richard. “A Response to Orzack and Sober: Formal Analysis and the Fluidity of Science.” Quarterly Review of Biology 68 (4), (1993):547-555.
  • Kuorikoski, Jaakko - Lehtinen, Aki - Caterina Marchionni, Caterina. “Economic Modelling as Robustness Analysis”, The British Journal for The Philosophy of Science, 61(3), (2010): 541-567.
  • Cartwright, Nancy. “Replicability, Reproducibility and Robustness: Comments on Harry Collins”, History of Political Economy 23, (1991), 143–155.
  • Mäki, Uskali. “On a Paradox of Truth, or How not to Obscure the issue of Whether Explanatory Models Can be True.” Journal of Economic Methodology, 20:3, (2013): 268-279.
  • Daniel M. Hausman, Daniel M. “Paradox Postponed.” Journal of Economic Methodology, 20:3, (2013):250-254.
  • Sugden, Robert. “Credible Worlds: The Status of Theoretical Models in Economics.”Journal of Economic Methodology 7 (1), (2000):1–31.
  • Woodward, James. “Some Varieties of Robustness.” Journal of Economic Methodology, 13:2, (2006): 219-240.
  • Forber, Patrick. “Confirmation and Explaining How possible.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, 41, (2010): 32–40.
  • Houkes, Wybo - Vaesen, Krist. “Robust! Handle with Care.” Philosophy of Science, 57(5), (2012):345-364.
  • Justus, James. “The Elusive Basis of Inferential Robustness.” Philosophy of Science, Vol. 79, No. 5, (2012):795-807.
  • Kuorikoski, Jaakko - Lehtinen, Aki. “Incredible Worlds, Credible Results”, Erkenntnis 70, (2009:119–131.
  • Jaakko Kuorikoski - Aki Lehtinen - Caterina Marchionni, “Economic Modelling as Robustness Analysis”, The British Journal for The Philosophy of Science, 61(3), (2010), 541-567.
  • Weisberg, Micheal . “Robustness Analysis.” Philosophy of Science 73, (2006): 730–742.
  • Lloyd, Elisabeth A. “Varieties of Support and Confirmation of Climate Models.” Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 83 (1), (2009): 213-232.
  • Lloyd, Elisabeth A. “Confirmation and Robustness of Climate Models.” Philosophy of Science 77 (5), (2010): 971–984.
  • Lloyd, Elisabeth A. “Model Robustness as a Confirmatory Virtue: The Case of Climate Science.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 49, (2015): 58-68. Lehtinen, Aki. “Derivational Robustness and Indirect Confirmation.” Erkenntnis 83 (3), (2018): 539-576.
  • Elgin, Mehmet - Sober, Elliot. “Cartwright on Explanation and Idealization.” Erkenntnis 57, (2002): 441–450.
  • Weisberg, Michael. “Three Kinds of Idealization.”Journal of Philosophy, 104 (12), (2007): 639-659.
Toplam 47 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Felsefe
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Ahmet Dinçer Çevik 0000-0001-5897-7381

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Aralık 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Sayı: 55

Kaynak Göster

Chicago Çevik, Ahmet Dinçer. “Bilimsel Modellerin Sağlamlığı Üzerine”. Felsefe Arkivi, sy. 55 (Aralık 2021): 49-65. https://doi.org/10.26650/arcp.1033984.