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Does Export Product Diversification Effect Export Performance: The Case of Turkey

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2, 493 - 505, 27.04.2021
https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.882615

Öz

Classical trade theories suggest that in order to economic growth countries must specialize in products which they have a comparative advantage and, export them. However, this suggestion of classical trade theories is partly based on the assumption that there is no uncertainty. Also, specializing in a narrow product range can render countries vulnerable to external shocks. For these reasons, some researchers recommend diversification to avoid the risks resulting from uncertainty and external shocks. From this point of view, this study mainly aims to investigate the effects of product diversification for the market on Turkey's real exports to 136 partner countries for the period from 2000 to 2017. The findings obtained from the second-generation econometric analyses that take into account cross-sectional dependence can be listed as follows: i) Tests show that cross-section dependence exists in the model, and slope coefficients are heterogeneous; ii) An increase in both diversification in Turkey's exports of goods and the real income of Turkey's trade partner countries increase the real export of Turkey, and iii) The appreciation of the bilateral real exchange rate has a negative impact on Turkey's real exports. Therefore, policymakers should design policies that encourage diversification. Besides, the monetary authority of Turkey should provide stabilization in the bilateral real exchange rate.

Kaynakça

  • Acaravci, A., & Akalin, G. (2017). Environment–economic growth nexus: a comparative analysis of developed and developing countries. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(5), 34-43.
  • Aditya, A., & Acharyya, R. (2013). Export diversification, composition, and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country analysis. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 22(7), 959-992.
  • Agarwal, I., Duttagupta, R., & Presbitero, A. F. (2020). Commodity prices and bank lending. Economic Inquiry, 58(2), 953-979.
  • Agosin, M. R. (2007). Export diversification and growth in emerging economies (Vol. 233, pp. 559-562). Working paper.
  • Aiello, F., Bonanno, G., & Via, A. (2015). New evidence on export price elasticity from China and six OECD countries. China & World Economy, 23(6), 56-78.
  • Akalin, G., & Uzgören, E. (2019). Kurumsal kalitenin gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkisi: Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için ampirik bir analiz. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 14(1), 201-224.
  • Akar, G., & Ay, A. (2019). Ürün ve Ülke Açısından İhracat Çeşitlendirmesi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. Gümüshane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Elektronik Dergisi, 10(1).
  • Al-Marhubi, F. (2000). Export diversification and growth: an empirical investigation. Applied economics letters, 7(9), 559-562.
  • Aldan, A., & Çulha, O. Y. (2016). The role of the extensive margin in export of Turkey: A comparative analysis. Central Bank Review, 16(2), 59-64. doi:10.1016/j.cbrev.2016.05.002.
  • Álvarez, R., & Claro, S. (2007). On the sources of China’s export growth. Documentos de Trabajo (Banco Central de Chile)(426), 1.
  • Amador, J., & Opromolla, L. D. (2013). Product and destination mix in export markets. Review of World Economics, 149(1), 23-53.
  • Amiti, M., & Freund, C. (2010). The anatomy of China's export growth. NBER Chapters, 35-56.
  • Amurgo-Pacheco, A. (2007). Patterns of export diversification in developing countries (Vol. 4473): World Bank Publications.
  • Baltagi, B. H., & Pirotte, A. (2010). Panel data inference under spatial dependence. Economic Modelling, 27(6), 1368-1381.
  • Basak, G. K., & Das, S. (2018). Understanding cross-sectional dependence in panel data. arXiv preprint arXiv:1804.08326.
  • Bernard, A. B., Jensen, J. B., Redding, S. J., & Schott, P. K. (2009). The margins of US trade. American Economic Review, 99(2), 487-493.
  • Besedeš, T., & Prusa, T. J. (2011). The role of extensive and intensive margins and export growth. Journal of Development Economics, 96(2), 371-379. doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2010.08.013
  • Beverelli, C., Neumueller, S., & Teh, R. (2015). Export diversification effects of the WTO trade facilitation agreement. World Development, 76, 293-310.
  • Breitung, J., Roling, C., & Salish, N. (2016). Lagrange multiplier type tests for slope homogeneity in panel data models. The Econometrics Journal, 19(2), 166-202.
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The review of economic studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Chudik, A., & Pesaran, M. H. (2013). Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors. CESifo Working Paper Series 4232, CESifo.
  • Collier, P. (2002). Primary commodity dependence and Africa’s future. World Bank, Washington DC.
  • Dash, A. K., Dutta, S., & Paital, R. R. (2018). Bilateral export demand function of India: An empirical analysis. Theoretical Economics Letters, 8(11), 2330-2344.
  • De Lucio, J., Mínguez-Fuentes, R., Minondo, A., & Requena-Silvente, F. (2011). The extensive and intensive margins of Spanish trade. International Review of Applied Economics, 25(5), 615-631.
  • Deaton, A., & Miller, R. I. (1995). International commodity prices, macroeconomic performance, and politics in Sub-Saharan Africa: NJ: International Finance Section, Department of Economics, Princeton University.
  • Del Rosal, I. (2019). Export diversification and export performance by destination country. Bulletin of Economic Research, 71(1), 58-74.
  • Easterly, W., Reshef, A., & Schwenkenberg, J. M. (2009). The power of exports. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper (5081).
  • Eberhardt, M., & Teal, F. (2013). No mangoes in the tundra: spatial heterogeneity in agricultural productivity analysis. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 75(6), 914-939.
  • Ekmen, S., & Erlat, G. (2013). Export diversification and competitiveness: intensive and extensive margins of turkey. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 24(88), 35-64.
  • Erdogan, S., Akalin, G., & Oypan, O. (2020). Are shocks to disaggregated energy consumption transitory or permanent in Turkey? New evidence from fourier panel KPSS test. Energy, 197, 117174.
  • Evenett, S. J., & Venables, A. J. (2002). Export growth in developing countries: Market entry and bilateral trade flows (pp. 1-42). mimeo.
  • Feenstra, R. C. (1994). New product varieties and the measurement of international prices. The American Economic Review, 157-177.
  • Felbermayr, G. J., & Kohler, W. (2006). Exploring the intensive and extensive margins of world trade. Review of World Economics, 142(4), 642-674.
  • Funke, M., & Ruhwedel, R. (2001). Export variety and export performance: empirical evidence from East Asia. Journal of Asian Economics, 12(4), 493-505.
  • Funke, M., & Ruhwedel, R. (2002). Export variety and export performance: empirical evidence for the OECD countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 138(1), 97-114.
  • Goldstein, M., & Khan, M. (1985). Income and price effects in foreign trade. Handbook of International Economics, 2, 1041-1105: DOI 10.1016/S1573-4404 (85) 02011-1.
  • Gruss, B. (2014). After the boom–commodity prices and economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: International Monetary Fund.
  • Gruss, B., & Kebhaj, S. (2019). Commodity terms of trade: a new database: International Monetary Fund.
  • Hausmann, R., & Klinger, B. (2007). The structure of the product space and the evolution of comparative advantage. CID Working Paper Series.
  • Helpman, E., Melitz, M., & Rubinstein, Y. (2008). Estimating trade flows: Trading partners and trading volumes. The quarterly journal of economics, 123(2), 441-487.
  • Herzer, D., & Nowak-Lehnmann, D. F. (2006). What does export diversification do for growth? An econometric analysis. Applied economics, 38(15), 1825-1838.
  • Hummels, D., & Klenow, P. J. (2005). The variety and quality of a nation's exports. American Economic Review, 95(3), 704-723.
  • Kang, J. W., & Dagli, S. (2018). International trade and exchange rates. Journal of Applied Economics, 21(1), 84-105.
  • Kaulich, F. (2009). Diversification and economic development. (Doctoral dissertation, universitat wien).
  • Kaulich, F. (2012). Diversification vs. specialization as alternative strategies for economic development: Can we settle a debate by looking at the empirical evidence?
  • Ketenci, N., & Uz, I. (2011). Bilateral and regional trade elasticities of the EU. Empirical Economics, 40(3), 839-854.
  • Nazlioglu, S., Lebe, F., & Kayhan, S. (2011). Nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries: Cross-sectionally dependent heterogeneous panel causality analysis. Energy Policy, 39(10), 6615-6621.
  • O'Connell, P. G. (1998). The overvaluation of purchasing power parity. Journal of International Economics, 44(1), 1-19.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels. Empirical Economics, 1-38.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias‐adjusted LM test of error cross‐section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Prebisch, R. (1950). The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems. Economic Bulletin for Latin America, 7, 1-12.
  • Sadorsky, P. (2013). Do urbanization and industrialization affect energy intensity in developing countries? Energy Economics, 37, 52-59.
  • Sannassee, R. V., Seetanah, B., & Lamport, M. J. (2014). Export diversification and economic growth: the case of Mauritius. Connecting to Global Markets-Challenges and Opportunities, World Trade Organization (WTO).
  • Sarafidis, V., Yamagata, T., & Robertson, D. (2009). A test of cross section dependence for a linear dynamic panel model with regressors. Journal of Econometrics, 148(2), 149-161.
  • Singer, H. (1950). The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries. The American economic review, 40(2), 473-485.
  • Siope, V., Spence, M., Mevel, S., & Karingi, S. (2012). Export diversification and intra industry trade in Africa. Paper presented at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Expert Group Meeting on Export Diversification and Intra-Industry, Lusaka, Zambia.
  • Şen, A., & Öztürk, M. (2019). Yaygın ve yoğun marjların toplam ihracatla ilişkisi: Türkiye deneyimi. Route Educational and Social Science Journal, 6(4).
  • Thuy, V. N. T., & Thuy, D. T. T. (2019). The impact of exchange rate volatility on exports in Vietnam: A bounds testing approach. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(1), 6.

İhracat Ürün Çeşitlendirmesi İhracat Performansını Etkilemekte Midir: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2, 493 - 505, 27.04.2021
https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.882615

Öz

Klasik ticaret teorileri, ülkelerin büyüyebilmeleri için karşılaştırmalı üstünlüğe sahip oldukları mallarda uzmanlaşmaları ve bu malları ihraç etmeleri gerektiğini ileri sürmektedir. Ancak, klasik ticaret teorilerinin bu argümanı kısmen belirsizlik olmadığı varsayımına dayanmaktadır. Ayrıca, dar bir ürün yelpazesinde uzmanlaşmak ülkeleri dış şoklara karşı korumasız hale getirebilmektedir. Bu nedenlerden ötürü bazı araştırmacılar, belirsizlik ve dış şokların yarattığı risklerden kaçınılabilmesi için çeşitlendirmeyi önermektedirler. Buradan hareketle bu çalışmanın temel amacı, pazara yönelik mal çeşitlendirmesinin Türkiye’nin 136 partner ülkeye yapmış olduğu ihracat üzerindeki etkisini 2000-2017 dönemi için araştırmaktır. Yatay kesit bağımlılığı dikkate alan ikinci nesil analizlerle elde edilen bulgular şöyle sıralanabilir: i) Testler model bazında yatay kesit bağımlığın olduğunu ve eğim katsayılarının heterojen olduğunu göstermektedir; ii) Türkiye'nin ihraç ettiği malların çeşitliliğindeki ve partner ülkelerin reel gelirindeki artışlar, Türkiye'nin reel ihracatını arttırmaktadır; ve iii) İkili reel döviz kurundaki artışlar Türkiye’nin reel ihracatını olumsuz etkilemektedir. Bu nedenle, politika yapıcılar çeşitlendirmeyi teşvik eden politikalar tasarlamalıdır. Buna ek olarak, Türkiye'nin para otoritesi ikili reel döviz kurunda istikrar sağlamalıdır.

Kaynakça

  • Acaravci, A., & Akalin, G. (2017). Environment–economic growth nexus: a comparative analysis of developed and developing countries. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(5), 34-43.
  • Aditya, A., & Acharyya, R. (2013). Export diversification, composition, and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country analysis. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 22(7), 959-992.
  • Agarwal, I., Duttagupta, R., & Presbitero, A. F. (2020). Commodity prices and bank lending. Economic Inquiry, 58(2), 953-979.
  • Agosin, M. R. (2007). Export diversification and growth in emerging economies (Vol. 233, pp. 559-562). Working paper.
  • Aiello, F., Bonanno, G., & Via, A. (2015). New evidence on export price elasticity from China and six OECD countries. China & World Economy, 23(6), 56-78.
  • Akalin, G., & Uzgören, E. (2019). Kurumsal kalitenin gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkisi: Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için ampirik bir analiz. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 14(1), 201-224.
  • Akar, G., & Ay, A. (2019). Ürün ve Ülke Açısından İhracat Çeşitlendirmesi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. Gümüshane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Elektronik Dergisi, 10(1).
  • Al-Marhubi, F. (2000). Export diversification and growth: an empirical investigation. Applied economics letters, 7(9), 559-562.
  • Aldan, A., & Çulha, O. Y. (2016). The role of the extensive margin in export of Turkey: A comparative analysis. Central Bank Review, 16(2), 59-64. doi:10.1016/j.cbrev.2016.05.002.
  • Álvarez, R., & Claro, S. (2007). On the sources of China’s export growth. Documentos de Trabajo (Banco Central de Chile)(426), 1.
  • Amador, J., & Opromolla, L. D. (2013). Product and destination mix in export markets. Review of World Economics, 149(1), 23-53.
  • Amiti, M., & Freund, C. (2010). The anatomy of China's export growth. NBER Chapters, 35-56.
  • Amurgo-Pacheco, A. (2007). Patterns of export diversification in developing countries (Vol. 4473): World Bank Publications.
  • Baltagi, B. H., & Pirotte, A. (2010). Panel data inference under spatial dependence. Economic Modelling, 27(6), 1368-1381.
  • Basak, G. K., & Das, S. (2018). Understanding cross-sectional dependence in panel data. arXiv preprint arXiv:1804.08326.
  • Bernard, A. B., Jensen, J. B., Redding, S. J., & Schott, P. K. (2009). The margins of US trade. American Economic Review, 99(2), 487-493.
  • Besedeš, T., & Prusa, T. J. (2011). The role of extensive and intensive margins and export growth. Journal of Development Economics, 96(2), 371-379. doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2010.08.013
  • Beverelli, C., Neumueller, S., & Teh, R. (2015). Export diversification effects of the WTO trade facilitation agreement. World Development, 76, 293-310.
  • Breitung, J., Roling, C., & Salish, N. (2016). Lagrange multiplier type tests for slope homogeneity in panel data models. The Econometrics Journal, 19(2), 166-202.
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The review of economic studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Chudik, A., & Pesaran, M. H. (2013). Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors. CESifo Working Paper Series 4232, CESifo.
  • Collier, P. (2002). Primary commodity dependence and Africa’s future. World Bank, Washington DC.
  • Dash, A. K., Dutta, S., & Paital, R. R. (2018). Bilateral export demand function of India: An empirical analysis. Theoretical Economics Letters, 8(11), 2330-2344.
  • De Lucio, J., Mínguez-Fuentes, R., Minondo, A., & Requena-Silvente, F. (2011). The extensive and intensive margins of Spanish trade. International Review of Applied Economics, 25(5), 615-631.
  • Deaton, A., & Miller, R. I. (1995). International commodity prices, macroeconomic performance, and politics in Sub-Saharan Africa: NJ: International Finance Section, Department of Economics, Princeton University.
  • Del Rosal, I. (2019). Export diversification and export performance by destination country. Bulletin of Economic Research, 71(1), 58-74.
  • Easterly, W., Reshef, A., & Schwenkenberg, J. M. (2009). The power of exports. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper (5081).
  • Eberhardt, M., & Teal, F. (2013). No mangoes in the tundra: spatial heterogeneity in agricultural productivity analysis. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 75(6), 914-939.
  • Ekmen, S., & Erlat, G. (2013). Export diversification and competitiveness: intensive and extensive margins of turkey. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 24(88), 35-64.
  • Erdogan, S., Akalin, G., & Oypan, O. (2020). Are shocks to disaggregated energy consumption transitory or permanent in Turkey? New evidence from fourier panel KPSS test. Energy, 197, 117174.
  • Evenett, S. J., & Venables, A. J. (2002). Export growth in developing countries: Market entry and bilateral trade flows (pp. 1-42). mimeo.
  • Feenstra, R. C. (1994). New product varieties and the measurement of international prices. The American Economic Review, 157-177.
  • Felbermayr, G. J., & Kohler, W. (2006). Exploring the intensive and extensive margins of world trade. Review of World Economics, 142(4), 642-674.
  • Funke, M., & Ruhwedel, R. (2001). Export variety and export performance: empirical evidence from East Asia. Journal of Asian Economics, 12(4), 493-505.
  • Funke, M., & Ruhwedel, R. (2002). Export variety and export performance: empirical evidence for the OECD countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 138(1), 97-114.
  • Goldstein, M., & Khan, M. (1985). Income and price effects in foreign trade. Handbook of International Economics, 2, 1041-1105: DOI 10.1016/S1573-4404 (85) 02011-1.
  • Gruss, B. (2014). After the boom–commodity prices and economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: International Monetary Fund.
  • Gruss, B., & Kebhaj, S. (2019). Commodity terms of trade: a new database: International Monetary Fund.
  • Hausmann, R., & Klinger, B. (2007). The structure of the product space and the evolution of comparative advantage. CID Working Paper Series.
  • Helpman, E., Melitz, M., & Rubinstein, Y. (2008). Estimating trade flows: Trading partners and trading volumes. The quarterly journal of economics, 123(2), 441-487.
  • Herzer, D., & Nowak-Lehnmann, D. F. (2006). What does export diversification do for growth? An econometric analysis. Applied economics, 38(15), 1825-1838.
  • Hummels, D., & Klenow, P. J. (2005). The variety and quality of a nation's exports. American Economic Review, 95(3), 704-723.
  • Kang, J. W., & Dagli, S. (2018). International trade and exchange rates. Journal of Applied Economics, 21(1), 84-105.
  • Kaulich, F. (2009). Diversification and economic development. (Doctoral dissertation, universitat wien).
  • Kaulich, F. (2012). Diversification vs. specialization as alternative strategies for economic development: Can we settle a debate by looking at the empirical evidence?
  • Ketenci, N., & Uz, I. (2011). Bilateral and regional trade elasticities of the EU. Empirical Economics, 40(3), 839-854.
  • Nazlioglu, S., Lebe, F., & Kayhan, S. (2011). Nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries: Cross-sectionally dependent heterogeneous panel causality analysis. Energy Policy, 39(10), 6615-6621.
  • O'Connell, P. G. (1998). The overvaluation of purchasing power parity. Journal of International Economics, 44(1), 1-19.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels. Empirical Economics, 1-38.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias‐adjusted LM test of error cross‐section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Prebisch, R. (1950). The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems. Economic Bulletin for Latin America, 7, 1-12.
  • Sadorsky, P. (2013). Do urbanization and industrialization affect energy intensity in developing countries? Energy Economics, 37, 52-59.
  • Sannassee, R. V., Seetanah, B., & Lamport, M. J. (2014). Export diversification and economic growth: the case of Mauritius. Connecting to Global Markets-Challenges and Opportunities, World Trade Organization (WTO).
  • Sarafidis, V., Yamagata, T., & Robertson, D. (2009). A test of cross section dependence for a linear dynamic panel model with regressors. Journal of Econometrics, 148(2), 149-161.
  • Singer, H. (1950). The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries. The American economic review, 40(2), 473-485.
  • Siope, V., Spence, M., Mevel, S., & Karingi, S. (2012). Export diversification and intra industry trade in Africa. Paper presented at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Expert Group Meeting on Export Diversification and Intra-Industry, Lusaka, Zambia.
  • Şen, A., & Öztürk, M. (2019). Yaygın ve yoğun marjların toplam ihracatla ilişkisi: Türkiye deneyimi. Route Educational and Social Science Journal, 6(4).
  • Thuy, V. N. T., & Thuy, D. T. T. (2019). The impact of exchange rate volatility on exports in Vietnam: A bounds testing approach. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(1), 6.
Toplam 60 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm İktisat
Yazarlar

Ercan Yaşar 0000-0002-9471-4068

Güray Akalin 0000-0002-6647-5418

Yayımlanma Tarihi 27 Nisan 2021
Gönderilme Tarihi 18 Şubat 2021
Kabul Tarihi 19 Nisan 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Yaşar, E., & Akalin, G. (2021). İhracat Ürün Çeşitlendirmesi İhracat Performansını Etkilemekte Midir: Türkiye Örneği. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 20(2), 493-505. https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.882615