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Deprem ve konut fiyatları ilişkisi: konutlarda depreme dayanıklılık ekseninde İstanbul ve İzmir analizleri

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 83, 131 - 143, 31.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.1338125

Öz

Deprem, zamanı ve şiddeti önceden kesin olarak belirlenemeyen, ani ve yıkıcı sonuçları ile maruz kalan insanların hayatını, gerçekleştiği coğrafyayı ve ekonomiyi doğrudan etkileyen bir doğal afet olarak insanlık tarihinde daima büyük etkilere ve öneme sahip olmuştur. Tarihsel süreçte Türkiye coğrafyası da büyük ve yıkıcı depremlere sahne olmuş, günümüzde ülkemiz bir deprem ülkesi olarak nitelendirilmeye başlamıştır. Bu gerçekten yola çıkarak hazırlanan bu çalışmada amaç, bir deprem ülkesi olan Türkiye’nin iki büyük metropolü olan İstanbul ve İzmir’de konutların depreme dayanıklılığının konut fiyatları üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektir. Bu amaçla hazırlanan çalışmanın birinci bölümünde deprem ve konut piyasası ilişkisine yer verilmektedir. Bu bölüm kapsamında iki deprem şehri olan İstanbul ve İzmir’de konutların depreme hazır bulunuşlukları ile konut fiyatlarının ilişkisi incelenmektedir. İkinci bölümde konut fiyatlarının belirleyicileri ile yine bir belirleyici olarak deprem ile ilgili literatür analiz edilmektedir. Son olarak üçüncü bölümde, depreme dayanıklılığın konut fiyatlarına etkilerine dair İstanbul ve İzmir için kesit veri analizlerine yer verilmektedir. Bu bölüm kapsamında, İstanbul’da 380, İzmir’de 280 konutun fiyatları üzerinden değerlendirmeler yapılmaktadır. Elde edilen analiz sonuçlarına göre hem İzmir hem de İstanbul için konut fiyatlarını etkileyen değişkenler şehir merkezine yakınlık, otoparkın varlığı ve denize yakınlık olarak bulunurken; konutların depreme dayanıklılığının konut fiyatları üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisine rastlanmamıştır.

Destekleyen Kurum

İKSAD

Proje Numarası

2022/RC-010

Teşekkür

Bu çalışma, İKSAD Proje Birimi tarafından desteklenmiş olan 2022/RC-010 numaralı ve “Türkiye’de Depremlerin Konut Fiyatlarına Etkileri: Bölgesel Düzeyde Makro ve Mikro Etkilere Yönelik Ampirik Analizler” başlıklı projenin bir bölümünden üretilmiştir. Projemize desteğinden ötürü İKSAD'a teşekkürlerimizi sunarız.

Kaynakça

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Earthquake and house prices relationship: Analyses for Istanbul and Izmir in terms of eathquake resistance

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 83, 131 - 143, 31.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.1338125

Öz

Earthquakes have always had great effects and importance in the history of humanity as a natural disaster, the time and severity of which cannot be determined in advance, and which directly affects the lives of people exposed to it with its sudden and devastating consequences. In the historical manner, the geography of Türkiye has also been the scene of major and destructive earthquakes, and today it’s called as an earthquake country. In this context, the aim of this study is to analyze the effect of earthquake resistance of houses on house prices in Istanbul and Izmir, the two largest metropolises of Türkiye. With this aim, the first section of the study explains the relationship between earthquake and housing market. Within the scope of this section, the relationship between earthquake readiness and housing prices in two earthquake cities, Istanbul and Izmir, is examined. In the second part, the determinants of housing prices and the literature on earthquake as a determinant are analyzed. Finally, in the third section, cross-sectional data analyzes for Istanbul and Izmir on the effects of earthquake resistance on housing prices are given. Within the scope of this section, evaluations are made over the prices of 380 houses in Istanbul and 280 houses in Izmir. According to the results of the analyses, the variables that affect the housing prices for both Izmir and Istanbul and are found to be significant are the proximity to the city center, the presence of the parking lot and the proximity to the sea. However, resistance to earthquakes is not found to be a significant determinant of house prices.

Proje Numarası

2022/RC-010

Kaynakça

  • AFAD. (2023a). Deprem Kataloğu. T.C. İçişleri Bakanlığı Afet ve Acil Durum Yönetimi Başkanlığı. https://deprem.afad.gov.tr/event-catalog AFAD. (2023b). Türkiye Bina Deprem Yönetmeliği. T. C. İçişleri Bakanlığı Afet ve Acil Durum Yönetimi Başkanlığı. https://www.afad.gov.tr/
  • Afşar, A., Yılmazel, Ö., & Yılmazel, S. (2017). Konut fiyatlarını etkileyen faktörlerin hedonik model ile belirlenmesi: Eskişehir örneği. Selçuk Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 37, 195–205.
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  • Halkia, G., & Ludwig, L. G. (2022). Household earthquake preparedness in Oklahoma: a mixed methods study of selected municipalities. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 73(102872), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102872
  • Hepsiemlak. (2023). https://www.hepsiemlak.com/
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  • Ikefuji, M., Laeven, R. J. A., Magnus, J. R., & Yue, Y. (2022). Earthquake risk embedded in property prices: evidence from five Japanese cities. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 117(537), 82–93. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2021.1928512
  • Jaramillo, C. R. (2009). Do natural disasters have long-term effects on growth?. Documento Centor de Estudios Sobre Desarrollo Economico, No. 5334.
  • Jehani, N. A., Mastani, N. A., Saudin, S., & Ab Malek, I. (2020). A study on the relationship between house price index and its determinants in Malaysia. Malaysian Journal of Computing, 5(2), 515–522.
  • Jung, J. H., & Smith, G. (2022). Earthquakes and home prices: The Napa and Ridgecrest quakes. Journal of Housing Research, 31 (1), 74-87.https://doi.org/10.1080/10527001.2021.2008093
  • Kawabata, M., Naoi, M., & Yasuda, S. (2022). Earthquake risk reduction and residential land prices in Tokyo. Journal of Spatial Econometrics, 3(5), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43071-022-00020-z
  • Kawawaki, Y., & Ota, M. (1996). The influence of the Great Hanshin – Awaji Earthquake on the local housing market. Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, 8(2), 220–233.
  • Keskin, B. (2008). Hedonic analysis of price in the Istanbul housing market. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 12(2), 125–138.
  • Keskin, B., Dunning, R., & Watkins, C. (2016). Modelling the impact of earthquake activity on real estate values: a multi-level approach. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 10(1),73– 90. Kim, H., Park, S. W., Lee, S., &
  • Xue, X. (2015). Determinants of house prices in Seoul: a quantile regression approach. Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 21(2), 91–113. https://doi.org/10.1080/14445921.2015.1058031
  • Knight Frank. (2021a). Global residential cities index– Q2 2021. Knight Frank. https://content.knightfrank.com/
  • Knight Frank. (2021b). Global residential cities index– Q3 2021. Knight Frank. https://content.knightfrank.com/
  • Koster, H. R. A., & van Ommeren, J. (2015). A shaky business: natural gas extraction, earthquakes and house prices. European Economic Review, 80, 120-139.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.08.011
  • Kördiş, G., Işık, S., & Mert, M. (2014). Antalya’da konut fiyatlarını etkileyen faktörlerin hedonik fiyat modeli ile tahmin edilmesi. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, 28, 103–132.
  • Logan, C. (2017). Quantifying changes in risk perception through house price differentials following the catastrophic Canterbury earthquake event. Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 23(1), 51–74. https://doi.org/10.1080/14445921.2017.1303262
  • Mechler, R. (2003). Macroeconomic impacts of natural disasters. Dünya Bankası Yayınları.
  • Önder, Z., Dökmeci, V., Keskin, B. (2004). The impact of public perception of earthquake risk on Istanbul’s housing market. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 12(2), 181–194.
  • Metz, N. E., Roach, T., Williams, J. A. (2017). The costs of induced seismicity: a hedonic analysis. Economics Letters, 160, 86–90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2017.08.032
  • Modica, M., Zoboli, R., Meroni, F., Pessina, V., Squarcina, T., & Locati, M. (2021). ‘Near miss’ housing market response to the 2012 northern Italy earthquake: The role of housing quality and risk perception. Urban Studies, 58(11), 2293–2309. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098020943490
  • Mothorpe, C., & Wyman, D. (2021). What the Frack? The impact of seismic activity on residential property values. Journal of Housing Research, 30(1), 34–58. https://doi.org/10.1080/10527001.2020.1827579
  • Murdoch, J. C., Singh, H., & Thayer, M. (1993). The impact of natural hazards on housing values: The Loma Prieta earthquake. Real Estate Economics, 21(2), 167–184.
  • Nakagawa, M., Saito, M., & Yamaga, H. (2007). Earthquake risk and housing rents: Evidence from the Tokyo Metropolitan Area. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 37, 87–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2006.06.009
  • Naoi, M., Seko, M., & Sumita, K. (2009). Earthquake risk and housing prices in Japan: evidence before and after massive earthquakes. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 39(6), 658-669.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2009.08.002
  • Naoi, M., Sumita, K., & Seko, M. (2010). Estimating consumer valuation of earthquake risk: evidence from Japanese housing markets. International Real Estate Review, 13(2), 117–133.
  • Newbold, P., Carlson, W., & Thorne, B. (1994). Statistics for Business and Economics. Pearson.
  • Özen, K. (2022). Konut fiyatları üzerinde etkili olan sosyo ekonomik unsurların hedonik fiyat modeliyle araştırılması: panel veri analizi. Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 8(2), 503–522. https://doi.org/10.31463/aicusbed.1027502
  • Pereira, A. S. (2009). The opportunity of a disaster: the economic impact of the 1755 Lisbon Earthquake. Journal of Economic History, 69(2), 466–499. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050709000850
  • Posedel, P., & Vizek, M. (2009). House price determinants in transition and EU-15 countries. Post-Communist Economies, 21(3), 327–343. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631370903090640
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  • Seko, M. (2019). Valuation of Earthquake Risk in Housing Markets. Housing Markets and Household Behavior in Japan, 19, 177–192. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-3369-9_9
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  • Selim, H. (2009). Determinants of house prices in Turkey: hedonic regression versus artificial neural network. Expert Systems with Applications, 36, 2843–2852.
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  • Tu, C-H., Andersson, D. E., Shyr, O.F., & Lin, P-H. (2023). Earthquake risk, flooding risk and housing prices: evidence from Taichung, Taiwan. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 16, 923-938. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-023-09513-2
  • Utkucu, M., Durmuş, H., Uzunca, F. & Nalbant, S. (2023). 6 Şubat 2023 Gaziantep (Mw=7.7) ve Elbistan (Mw=7.5) Depremleri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. Sakarya Üniversitesi Afet Yönetim Uygulama ve Araştırma Merkezi ve Jeofizik Mühendisliği Bölümü. https://www.hidropolitikakademi.org/uploads/editor/images/Rapor_Son.pdf
  • Üçdoğruk, Ş. (2001). İzmir ilinde emlak fiyatlarına etki eden faktörler – hedonik yaklaşım. DEÜ İİBF Dergisi, 16(2), 149–161. Wilhelmsson, M., Ericson, L., & Winstrand, J. (2011). Regional division and the construction of hedonic house price index in Sweden [Conference Paper]. In 18th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference, Eindhoven, the Netherlands.
  • Yankaya, U., & Çelik, H. M. (2005). İzmir metrosunu konut fiyatları üzerindeki etkilerinin hedonik fiyat yöntemi ile modellenmesi. DEÜ İİBF Dergisi, 20(2), 61–79.
  • Yayar, R., & Gül, D. (2014). Mersin kent merkezinde konut piyasası fiyatlarının hedonik tahmini. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 14(3), 87–100.
  • Yayar, R., & Karaca, S. S. (2014). Konut fiyatlarına etki eden faktörlerin hedonik modelle belirlenmesi:TR83 bölgesi örneği. Ege Akademik Bakış, 14(4), 509–518.
  • Zaabi, Y. H. A., & Bekele, G. (2019). The house price dynamics and the macro-economy: an empirical perspective of UAE [Conference Paper]. International Conference on Advances in Business, Management and Law (ICABML). 143
Toplam 84 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomik Coğrafya
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Burcu Türkcan 0000-0002-7494-5897

Gül Şerife Huyugüzel Kışla 0000-0002-0901-2038

Çağla Bucak 0000-0003-3169-110X

Proje Numarası 2022/RC-010
Erken Görünüm Tarihi 31 Aralık 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Aralık 2023
Kabul Tarihi 14 Kasım 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Sayı: 83

Kaynak Göster

APA Türkcan, B., Huyugüzel Kışla, G. Ş., & Bucak, Ç. (2023). Deprem ve konut fiyatları ilişkisi: konutlarda depreme dayanıklılık ekseninde İstanbul ve İzmir analizleri. Türk Coğrafya Dergisi(83), 131-143. https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.1338125

Yayıncı: Türk Coğrafya Kurumu