Araştırma Makalesi
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Türkiye’de Sosyal Harcamaların Gelir Eşitsizliği ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Fourier ADL Eşbütünleşme Analizi / The Impact of Social Expenditures on Income Inequality and Economic Growth in Türkiye: Fourier ADL Cointegration Analysis

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 226 - 241, 05.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.29216/ueip.1322870

Öz

Sosyal politikanın önemli araçlarından biri olan sosyal harcamaların gelir dağılımı üzerindeki olumlu etkisi çok fazla tartışma konusu olmazken, bu harcamaların ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi literatürde geniş bir tartışma alanı oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı; Türkiye’deki sosyal harcamalar ile gelir dağılımı ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi ortaya koymaktır. Sosyal harcamaların ekonomik büyüme ve gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkisi sırasıyla 1980-2019 ve 1987-2019 dönemleri için Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme testi ile belirlenmiştir. Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme testi sonuçları eşbütünleşme ilişkisini ortaya koymuştur. FMOLS tahminleri, sosyal harcamaların ekonomik büyüme ve gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkilerinin olumlu olduğunu göstermiştir. Sonuç olarak, çalışma Türkiye’de kamu politika yapıcılarına sosyal harcamaları artırmayı önermektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Ahuja, D. ve Pandit, D. (2022). Social Spending as a Development Tool: Evidence from Developing Countries. European Journal of Government and Economics, 11(1), 73-96.
  • Alesina, A. ve Rodrik, D. (1994). Distributive Politics and Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109 (2). 465-490.
  • Alper, F. Ö. ve Demiral, M. (2016), Public Social Expenditures and Economic Growth: Evidence from Selected OECD Countries. Research in World Economy, 7(2), 44-51.
  • Arısoy, İ., Ünlükaplan, İ. ve Ergen, Z. (2010). Sosyal Harcamalar ve İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisinde 1960 – 2005 Dönemine Yönelik Bir Dinamik Analiz. Maliye Dergisi, 158, 398-421.
  • Banerjee, P., Arčabić, V., ve Lee, H. (2017). Fourier ADL Cointegration Test to Approximate Smooth Breaks with New Evidence from Crude Oil Market. Economic Modelling, 67, 114-124.
  • Barro, J.R. (1991). Economic Growth in A Cross Section Countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407–443.
  • Barro, R. J. (1996). Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study. NBER working paper, No. 5698, Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Economics Research.
  • Başoğlu, A. (2021). Sosyal Harcamaların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Türkiye Düzey 1 Bölgeleri için Panel Veri Analizi. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 7(1), 21-35.
  • Becker, R., Enders, W., ve Lee, J. (2006). A Stationarity Test in The Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409.
  • Benabou, R. (1996). Inequality and Growth. Bernanke, B.S. ve Rotemberg, J.J.8Ed.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996 (s.11-92) içinde. London: MIT Press.
  • Berg, A. vd. (2018). Redistribution, Inequality, And Growth: New Evidence. Journal of Economic Growth, 23 (3), 259-305.
  • Cammeraat, E. (2020). The Relationship Between Different Social Expenditure Schemes and Poverty, Inequality and Economic Growth. International Social Security Review, 73(2), 101-123.
  • Canbay, S., ve Kırca, M. (2022), Health Expenditures (Total, Public and Private) And Per Capita Income in The BRICS+T: Panel Bootstrap Causality Analysis. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 27(53), 52–67.
  • Christopoulos, D. K., ve León-Ledesma, M. A. (2010). Smooth Breaks and Non-Linear Mean Reversion: Post-Bretton Woods Real Exchange Rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(6), 1076-1093.
  • Cingano, F. (2014). Trends in Income Inequality and its Impact on Economic Growth. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 163.
  • Dayar, H. ve Akıncı, A. (2020). Kamu Sosyal Transfer Harcamalarının Kişisel Gelir Dağılımına Etkisi. Maliye Dergisi, 179, 172-185.
  • Dickey, D. A., ve Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of The Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root. Journal of The American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Dickey, D. A., ve Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072.
  • Engle, R. F., ve Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, And Testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
  • Esen, E. ve Çelik Keçili, M. (2022). Economic Growth and Health Expenditure Analysis for Turkey: Evidence from Time Series. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 13, 1786–1800.
  • Ferreira, M., Santos, M. ve Simões, M. (2022). Social Expenditure Composition and Inequality in The OECD: Do Welfare State Regimes Matter?. Lebedinski, L. vd. (Ed.) Human Capital and Welfare (s. 176-202) içinde. Belgium: University of Antwerp Publishing.
  • Gautam, N. (2022). The Impact of Government’s Human Capital Expenditure on Economic Growth of Nepal: An ARDL Approach. Quest Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 4(1), 30-40.
  • Gövdeli, T. ve Umar, E. K. (2021). Dynamic Linkages Between Social Expenditures and Economic Growth: the Most Important Conclusions for Central European Countries. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 24(4), 7-21.
  • Isiaka, A., Mihailov, A. ve Razzu, G. (2022). Reallocating Government Spending to Reduce Income Inequality: Panel Data Evidence from the Middle-Income Countries. Department of Economics, University of Reading, Discussion Paper No. 2022-08.
  • Johansen, S., ve Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference On Cointegration-With Appucations to The Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
  • Kaharudin, I. H. ve Ab-Rahman, M. S. (2022). Fiscal Policy Effects on Private Expenditure for Sustainable Economic Growth: A Panel VAR Study from Selected Developing Countries. Sustainability, 14(17), 1-21.
  • Khan, H. ve Bashar, O. K.M.R. (2015). Social Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Australia and New Zealand Using Cointegration and Causality Tests. The Journal of Developing Areas, 49(4), 285-300.
  • Khan, S. ve Padda, I. U. H. (2021). The Impact of Tax and Social Expenditure Policies on Income Distribution: Evidence from South Asia. Etikonomi, 20(2), 369-384.
  • Kónya, László. (2006). Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis On OECD Countries with A Panel Data Approach. Economic Modelling, 23(6), 978-992.
  • Lupu, D., Petrisor,M. B., Bercu, A. ve Tofan, M. (2018). The Impact of Public Expenditures on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Central and Eastern European Countries. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 54(3), 552-570.
  • Malyovanyi, M. vd. (2018). Assessment of The Social Expenditure Impact On the Economic Growth in OECD Countries. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 16 (3), 389-405.
  • Muinelo-Gallo, L. ve Roca-Sagalés, O. (2011). Economic Growth, Inequality and Fiscal Policies: A Survey of the Macroeconomics Literature, R. L. Bertrand, (Ed.), Theories and Effects of Economic Growth. (s. 99-119) içinde. New York: Nova Science Publishers.
  • Musgrave, R. (1959). The Theory of Public Finance. New York: McGraw Hill.
  • OECD (2022). OECD Social Expenditure Database (SOCX). Access Address: https://stats.oecd.org /Index.aspx?DataSetCode=SOCX_AGG#
  • Okun, A. M. (1975). Equality and Efficiency: The Big Tradeoff. Washington DC: Brookings Institution.
  • Öztürk, M. (2020). Sosyal Harcama Türleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Sosyal Güvenlik Dergisi, 10 (1), 107-124.
  • Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock, And The Unit Root Hypothesis. Econometrica: Journal of The Econometric Society, 1361-1401.
  • Persson, T. ve Tabellini, G. (1994). Is Inequality Harmful For Growth?. American Economic Review, 84(3), 600-621.
  • Pradhan, M.A.H., ve Quazi, R. (2022). The Relationship Between Public Social Security Expenditures and Poverty, Income Inequality, and GDP Growth: An Empirical Case Study of Bangladesh. The Journal of Developing Areas, 56(4), 65-77.
  • Ray, M. ve Sarangi, M. (2021). Causal Linkage Between Social Sector Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from India. Indian Journal of Economics and Business, 20(2), 463-473.
  • Recepoglu, M. (2022). Public Expenditures, Economic Growth and Income Inequality: Empirical Evidence from The Commonwealth of Independent States. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 9(2), 293-314.
  • Shkodra, J., Krasniqi, A., ve Ahmeti, N. (2022). The Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth in Southeast European Countries. Journal of Management Information and Decision Sciences, 25(1), 1-7.
  • Sidek, N.Z.M. (2021). Do Government Expenditure Reduce Income Inequality: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries, Studies in Economics and Finance, 38(2), 487-503.
  • Standardized World Income Inequality Database (2022). Access Address: https://fsolt.org/swiid/ Verberi, C., ve Yaşar, S. (2021). The Effects of Social Spending on Income Inequality in 30 OECD Countries. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 71(1), 39-57.
  • Waqas, M., Awan, M. S. ve Sánchez-Juárez, I. (2022). Social Protection Expenditures, Poverty, Inequality, and Economic Growth in Pakistan. Paradigma Económico, 14(1), 57-75.
  • WDI (2022), World Development Indicators Database. Access Address: https://databank. worldbank.org/ source/world-development-indicators

The Impact of Social Expenditures on Income Inequality and Economic Growth in Türkiye: Fourier Adl Cointegration Analysis / Türkiye’de Sosyal Harcamaların Gelir Eşitsizliği ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Fourier Adl Eşbütünleşme Analizi

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 226 - 241, 05.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.29216/ueip.1322870

Öz

While the positive effect of social expenditures, which is one of the important tools of social policy, on income distribution is not a subject of much discussion, the effect of these expenditures on economic growth constitutes a wide area of discussion in the literature. The aim of this study; to reveal the relationship between social expenditures, income distribution and economic growth in Turkey. The effect of social expenditures on economic growth and income distribution was determined by the Fourier ADL cointegration test for the 1980-2019 and 1987-2019 periods, respectively. The results of the Fourier ADL cointegration test revealed a cointegration relationship. FMOLS estimates show that the effects of social expenditures on economic growth and income distribution are positive. As a result, the study recommends public policy makers to increase social spending in Turkey.

Kaynakça

  • Ahuja, D. ve Pandit, D. (2022). Social Spending as a Development Tool: Evidence from Developing Countries. European Journal of Government and Economics, 11(1), 73-96.
  • Alesina, A. ve Rodrik, D. (1994). Distributive Politics and Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109 (2). 465-490.
  • Alper, F. Ö. ve Demiral, M. (2016), Public Social Expenditures and Economic Growth: Evidence from Selected OECD Countries. Research in World Economy, 7(2), 44-51.
  • Arısoy, İ., Ünlükaplan, İ. ve Ergen, Z. (2010). Sosyal Harcamalar ve İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisinde 1960 – 2005 Dönemine Yönelik Bir Dinamik Analiz. Maliye Dergisi, 158, 398-421.
  • Banerjee, P., Arčabić, V., ve Lee, H. (2017). Fourier ADL Cointegration Test to Approximate Smooth Breaks with New Evidence from Crude Oil Market. Economic Modelling, 67, 114-124.
  • Barro, J.R. (1991). Economic Growth in A Cross Section Countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407–443.
  • Barro, R. J. (1996). Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study. NBER working paper, No. 5698, Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Economics Research.
  • Başoğlu, A. (2021). Sosyal Harcamaların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Türkiye Düzey 1 Bölgeleri için Panel Veri Analizi. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 7(1), 21-35.
  • Becker, R., Enders, W., ve Lee, J. (2006). A Stationarity Test in The Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409.
  • Benabou, R. (1996). Inequality and Growth. Bernanke, B.S. ve Rotemberg, J.J.8Ed.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996 (s.11-92) içinde. London: MIT Press.
  • Berg, A. vd. (2018). Redistribution, Inequality, And Growth: New Evidence. Journal of Economic Growth, 23 (3), 259-305.
  • Cammeraat, E. (2020). The Relationship Between Different Social Expenditure Schemes and Poverty, Inequality and Economic Growth. International Social Security Review, 73(2), 101-123.
  • Canbay, S., ve Kırca, M. (2022), Health Expenditures (Total, Public and Private) And Per Capita Income in The BRICS+T: Panel Bootstrap Causality Analysis. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 27(53), 52–67.
  • Christopoulos, D. K., ve León-Ledesma, M. A. (2010). Smooth Breaks and Non-Linear Mean Reversion: Post-Bretton Woods Real Exchange Rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(6), 1076-1093.
  • Cingano, F. (2014). Trends in Income Inequality and its Impact on Economic Growth. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 163.
  • Dayar, H. ve Akıncı, A. (2020). Kamu Sosyal Transfer Harcamalarının Kişisel Gelir Dağılımına Etkisi. Maliye Dergisi, 179, 172-185.
  • Dickey, D. A., ve Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of The Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root. Journal of The American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Dickey, D. A., ve Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072.
  • Engle, R. F., ve Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, And Testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
  • Esen, E. ve Çelik Keçili, M. (2022). Economic Growth and Health Expenditure Analysis for Turkey: Evidence from Time Series. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 13, 1786–1800.
  • Ferreira, M., Santos, M. ve Simões, M. (2022). Social Expenditure Composition and Inequality in The OECD: Do Welfare State Regimes Matter?. Lebedinski, L. vd. (Ed.) Human Capital and Welfare (s. 176-202) içinde. Belgium: University of Antwerp Publishing.
  • Gautam, N. (2022). The Impact of Government’s Human Capital Expenditure on Economic Growth of Nepal: An ARDL Approach. Quest Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 4(1), 30-40.
  • Gövdeli, T. ve Umar, E. K. (2021). Dynamic Linkages Between Social Expenditures and Economic Growth: the Most Important Conclusions for Central European Countries. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 24(4), 7-21.
  • Isiaka, A., Mihailov, A. ve Razzu, G. (2022). Reallocating Government Spending to Reduce Income Inequality: Panel Data Evidence from the Middle-Income Countries. Department of Economics, University of Reading, Discussion Paper No. 2022-08.
  • Johansen, S., ve Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference On Cointegration-With Appucations to The Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
  • Kaharudin, I. H. ve Ab-Rahman, M. S. (2022). Fiscal Policy Effects on Private Expenditure for Sustainable Economic Growth: A Panel VAR Study from Selected Developing Countries. Sustainability, 14(17), 1-21.
  • Khan, H. ve Bashar, O. K.M.R. (2015). Social Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Australia and New Zealand Using Cointegration and Causality Tests. The Journal of Developing Areas, 49(4), 285-300.
  • Khan, S. ve Padda, I. U. H. (2021). The Impact of Tax and Social Expenditure Policies on Income Distribution: Evidence from South Asia. Etikonomi, 20(2), 369-384.
  • Kónya, László. (2006). Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis On OECD Countries with A Panel Data Approach. Economic Modelling, 23(6), 978-992.
  • Lupu, D., Petrisor,M. B., Bercu, A. ve Tofan, M. (2018). The Impact of Public Expenditures on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Central and Eastern European Countries. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 54(3), 552-570.
  • Malyovanyi, M. vd. (2018). Assessment of The Social Expenditure Impact On the Economic Growth in OECD Countries. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 16 (3), 389-405.
  • Muinelo-Gallo, L. ve Roca-Sagalés, O. (2011). Economic Growth, Inequality and Fiscal Policies: A Survey of the Macroeconomics Literature, R. L. Bertrand, (Ed.), Theories and Effects of Economic Growth. (s. 99-119) içinde. New York: Nova Science Publishers.
  • Musgrave, R. (1959). The Theory of Public Finance. New York: McGraw Hill.
  • OECD (2022). OECD Social Expenditure Database (SOCX). Access Address: https://stats.oecd.org /Index.aspx?DataSetCode=SOCX_AGG#
  • Okun, A. M. (1975). Equality and Efficiency: The Big Tradeoff. Washington DC: Brookings Institution.
  • Öztürk, M. (2020). Sosyal Harcama Türleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Sosyal Güvenlik Dergisi, 10 (1), 107-124.
  • Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock, And The Unit Root Hypothesis. Econometrica: Journal of The Econometric Society, 1361-1401.
  • Persson, T. ve Tabellini, G. (1994). Is Inequality Harmful For Growth?. American Economic Review, 84(3), 600-621.
  • Pradhan, M.A.H., ve Quazi, R. (2022). The Relationship Between Public Social Security Expenditures and Poverty, Income Inequality, and GDP Growth: An Empirical Case Study of Bangladesh. The Journal of Developing Areas, 56(4), 65-77.
  • Ray, M. ve Sarangi, M. (2021). Causal Linkage Between Social Sector Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from India. Indian Journal of Economics and Business, 20(2), 463-473.
  • Recepoglu, M. (2022). Public Expenditures, Economic Growth and Income Inequality: Empirical Evidence from The Commonwealth of Independent States. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 9(2), 293-314.
  • Shkodra, J., Krasniqi, A., ve Ahmeti, N. (2022). The Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth in Southeast European Countries. Journal of Management Information and Decision Sciences, 25(1), 1-7.
  • Sidek, N.Z.M. (2021). Do Government Expenditure Reduce Income Inequality: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries, Studies in Economics and Finance, 38(2), 487-503.
  • Standardized World Income Inequality Database (2022). Access Address: https://fsolt.org/swiid/ Verberi, C., ve Yaşar, S. (2021). The Effects of Social Spending on Income Inequality in 30 OECD Countries. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 71(1), 39-57.
  • Waqas, M., Awan, M. S. ve Sánchez-Juárez, I. (2022). Social Protection Expenditures, Poverty, Inequality, and Economic Growth in Pakistan. Paradigma Económico, 14(1), 57-75.
  • WDI (2022), World Development Indicators Database. Access Address: https://databank. worldbank.org/ source/world-development-indicators
Toplam 46 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Büyüme
Bölüm ARAŞTIRMA MAKALELERİ
Yazarlar

Burçin Eser 0000-0003-2623-2822

Murat Can Genç 0000-0003-0123-6042

Yayımlanma Tarihi 5 Ekim 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Eser, B., & Genç, M. C. (2023). Türkiye’de Sosyal Harcamaların Gelir Eşitsizliği ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Fourier ADL Eşbütünleşme Analizi / The Impact of Social Expenditures on Income Inequality and Economic Growth in Türkiye: Fourier ADL Cointegration Analysis. Uluslararası Ekonomi İşletme Ve Politika Dergisi, 7(2), 226-241. https://doi.org/10.29216/ueip.1322870

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