Arazi Örtüsü Değişiminin CORINE Verisiyle Modellenmesi: Ankara İlinin Kentsel Büyüme Tahmini

Öznur Işınkaralar

doi:10.51664/artium.1196926

EN TR

Modeling Land Cover Change with CORINE Database: Urban Growth Prediction of Ankara City

Abstract

Land use land cover change studies are very effective in decision-making processes related to cities. In the research, the future change of land cover in Ankara is predicted by using Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) data for the years 1990, 2012, and 2018. The obtained data were analyzed using Geographic Information Systems. The cellular automata and Markov chain methods were applied and integrated into the production of forecast maps, and the growth of structural areas for the year 2056 was modeled as spatial and temporal. The suitability of the applied modeling approach has been proven by analysing the reference and forecast maps for 2018 with the Kappa statistical value (Klocation: 0.9744). The areal change between 2018-2056 reveals the loss of agricultural lands, wetlands, and water bodies in contrast to the increase in artificial areas. The results reveal the speed of land cover change and especially the west, northwest, and southwest growth pressure of the city.

Keywords

Arazi Örtüsü Değişiminin CORINE Verisiyle Modellenmesi: Ankara İlinin Kentsel Büyüme Tahmini

Öz

Arazi kullanımı arazi örtüsü değişimi araştırmaları, kentlere ilişkin karar alma süreçlerinde oldukça etkilidir. Araştırmada, Ankara ilinde 1990, 2012 ve 2018 yılları Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) verisi kullanılarak arazi örtüsünün gelecekteki değişimi öngörülmektedir. Elde edilen veriler, Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Tahmin haritalarının üretilmesinde hücresel özişleme ve Markov zinciri yöntemleri entegre olarak uygulanmış ve 2056 yılı için yapısal alanların büyümesi zamansal-mekânsal olarak modellenmiştir. Uygulanan modelleme yaklaşımının uygunluğu, 2018 yılı için referans ve tahmin haritalarının Kappa istatistiki değeriyle (Klocation: 0,9744) analiz edilmesi yoluyla ispatlanmıştır. 2018-2056 yılları arasındaki alansal değişim, yapay alanlardaki artışa karşılık tarımsal alanlar ile sulak alanlar ve su kütlelerindeki kaybı ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuçlar, arazi örtüsü değişimindeki hızı ve özellikle kentin batı, kuzeybatı ve güneybatı yönlü büyüme baskısını ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kaynakça

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Türkçe

Konular

Kentsel Politika

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Öznur Işınkaralar ^*
0000-0001-9774-5137
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

28 Şubat 2023

Gönderilme Tarihi

31 Ekim 2022

Kabul Tarihi

5 Aralık 2022

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2023 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.51664/artium.1196926

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA72XR99UY

Kaynak Göster

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Işınkaralar, Ö. (2023). Arazi Örtüsü Değişiminin CORINE Verisiyle Modellenmesi: Ankara İlinin Kentsel Büyüme Tahmini. Artium, 11(1), 54-60. https://doi.org/10.51664/artium.1196926

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